Market predictions are going wrong for lots of brokerage houses and analysts as they have bearish approach on market after seeing the trade war news. Most analysts and brokerage firms leaned bearish after the resurfacing of the US-China tariff war, but the market had a different plan. As always, price action preceded the news. Nifty, Sensex, and broader indices closed with solid gains.
📌 Note: Monday, April 14, is a market holiday (Ambedkar Jayanti), making it a long weekend. Option traders should focus on premium decay and VIX movement.
📌 Table of Contents
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🌏 Global Market Impact:
China Hits Back with 125% Tariffs on US Goods
In a major global development that could influence market sentiment, China has announced retaliatory tariffs of 125% on US imports, mirroring the levels previously imposed by the US under President Trump. These revised tariffs — up from 84% — will come into effect starting April 12.
Interestingly, Beijing has stated that it has no immediate plans to escalate further, despite the ongoing tensions. In a bold remark, China’s Finance Ministry noted that “even if the US continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the history of world economy.”
🔎 Impact:
Expect short-term volatility in export-driven sectors and global trade-related stocks.
Market Overview – A Pause Before the Action
🔍 Nifty 50 Snapshot : (+1.92%)⬆️
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 22,695.40 | 22,923.90 | 22,695.40 | 22,828.55 |
📊 Market Breadth (Nifty 50)
| ADVANCED | FLAT (<0.25%) | DECLINES |
| 46 | 0 | 3 |
📈 Nifty Movers
| TOP GAINERS | GAIN % | TOP LOOSERS | LOSS % |
| HINDALCO | 6.70 % | ASIANPAINT | – 0.75 % |
| JSWSTEEL | 4.99 % | APOLLOHOSP | – 0.53 % |
🏦 Nifty Sectoral Performance
All sectors ended in green.
- Top Sectors: Energy (+2.70%), Pharma (+2.43%)
- Least Gainer: IT (+0.69%)
- Nifty Smallcap 50: +2.87%
📉 Technical Analysis – Bullish Momentum Resumes
Nifty 50 closes above the first resistance area with positive signs on chart. Markets filled up the gap of big gap down area generated due to tariff war news. Let’s check the price action and Indicators now.
- Nifty closes above the resistance of 22,800.
- Open = Low = Strong bullish price action.
- Market filled the previous gap and is forming higher highs.
Key Levels:
- Support: 22,700
- Resistance: 23,150
- RSI is also reversed and going upside with a small retracement. RSI is going towards 60.
- On Hourly chart, RSI is on 58. Market can show momentum when RSI crosses 60 and sustained over 60.
📊 Open Interest (OI) Data
Today was the first day of the short week but OI are very less showing weak participation in market. Let’s check data for Market prediction.
- Support: 22,500 PE OI: (40 Lkh)
- Resistance: 23,000 (CE OI: 41 Lkh)
🧮 OI Build-Up:
| Index | PRICE % | OI % | BUILDUP |
| NIFTY | 1.92% | 2.53% | Long Build-up |
| BANK NIFTY | 1.52% | 2.87% | Long Build-up |
| FINNIFTY | 1.75% | -3.4% | Short Covering |
- 📈 Interpretation: Strong bullish undertone across the board.
🌐 FII & DII Data (To be Updated)
FII : Sell (-2519.03) Cr. in Cash
DII : Buy (3759.27) Cr. in Cash
- FII bought 33645 Cr. in Index options. It’s a huge amount and can create good volatility in upcoming sessions.
🧠 Market Prediction & Trade Plan
Despite global tension, Indian markets show signs of sustained bullishness.
- Strong close above resistance
- Bullish OI buildup
- Positive RSI trajectory
- Favorable sector performance
Possible Upside Target: 23,150 – 23500
Key Risk: Rapid premium decay due to VIX
🛡️ Trading Tip: Consider trading next month expiry options to manage time decay better.
📘 Key Learning from Today’s Market
- Trading short expiry options in high VIX may hurt. Go with far expiries.
- News is reactionary, not predictive. Charts reflect reality.
- Premium melts fast when VIX falls post-spike.
💬 What’s Your Take?
Do you think Nifty will cross 23,000+ next week?
Or will bears return post-holiday?
🗨️ Let’s discuss in the comments!