Nifty 50 Prediction: Everyone wants the market to move according to their plan, but it rarely works that way. Today, Nifty 50 chose the path of a pure sideways expiry, closing 0.6% down after two consecutive bullish sessions. Nifty 50 traded within a tight 100-point range all day, and even more restricted in the last 2 hours—just a 10-point move. It felt like no one wanted to buy or sell.
Next week is also a short trading week, with 14th April being a holiday for Ambedkar Jayanti. Let’s break down the data and charts for the Nifty 50 prediction for 11 April 2025.
📌 Table of Contents
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📢 News Update: RBI Rate Cut & Global Tariff Tensions
In a surprising move, the RBI announced a rate cut of 25 basis points today, aiming to stimulate growth amidst global uncertainty. This move, although positive for the broader economy in the long run, didn’t trigger any immediate rally in the market due to expiry-day positioning and muted participation.
Meanwhile, on the international front, fresh tariff tensions between the US and China are causing ripples across global markets. The US is reportedly considering new tariffs on select Chinese tech imports, raising concerns of a potential trade friction resurgence. These developments might impact sectoral performance in the coming weeks, especially for export-heavy industries.
While today’s Nifty expiry was dull, these macro triggers could bring volatility and direction soon. Stay alert and plan your trades smartly!
Market Overview – A Pause Before the Action
🔍 Nifty 50 Snapshot
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 22,460.30 | 22,468.70 | 22,353.25 | 22,399.15 |
📊 Market Breadth (Nifty 50)
| ADVANCED | FLAT (<0.25%) | DECLINES |
| 16 | 7 | 27 |
📈 Nifty Movers
| TOP GAINERS | GAIN % | TOP LOOSERS | LOSS % |
| NESTLEIND | + 3.28 % | WIPRO | – 4.23 % |
| HINDUNILVR | + 2.611 % | SBIN | -3.40 % |
🏦 Nifty Sectoral Performance
The overall sectoral performance was weak:
- Nifty PSU Bank: -2.52%
- Nifty IT: -2.19%
- Nifty FMCG: +1.78% (only sector in green)
- Nifty Auto: +0.01% (almost flat)
🔍 Technical Analysis – Is This Pause Significant?
On the daily time frame, Nifty formed an inside candle, respecting both its support and resistance. The range is tightening, signaling a potential breakout.
There’s no clear price action yet. A move above or below today’s high/low can give the next trade opportunity.
Key Levels:
- Support: 22,350
- Resistance: 22,700
- This is the “make-or-break” range for the coming sessions.
📉 Daily RSI is holding support near 40. A breakout above today’s high may lead to a range shift and bullish momentum—and the reverse is also true for breakdowns.
📊 Open Interest (OI) Data
Today was expiry day, so data is not conclusive. Fresh OI positions will start building on Friday.
- Support: 22,400 (PE OI: 29 Lakh)
- Resistance: 23,500 (CE OI: 30 Lakh)
🧮 OI Build-Up:
| Index | PRICE % | OI % | BUILDUP |
| NIFTY | -0.61% | – 1.0 % | Long Unwinding |
| BANK NIFTY | -0.54% | + 8.48% | Short Buildup |
| FINNIFTY | -0.69% | -3.67 % | Long Unwinding |
Despite bearish OI signals, we can ignore them for now due to the expiry transition.
🌐 FII & DII Data (Updated)
FII : -4358.02 Cr. Sell in Cash
DII : +2976.66 Cr. buy in Cash
- FII Sold -91,654.86 Cr. in Index Option which shows a big volatility ahead.
🧠 Nifty 50 Prediction & Trade Plan
The market will likely follow geo-political news and global cues.
- If sentiment is positive globally, Nifty can resume its bullish trend.
- If the US markets show weakness, we may see downside pressure.
My View:
“Nifty is unlikely to go below 22,000 and has a high probability of consolidating between 22,500 – 23,500 during April.”
📘 Key Learning from Today’s Market
For Option Buyers: When India VIX is high (above 16–17), avoid carrying positions overnight before expiry. Premiums will melt rapidly in the first 15–30 minutes. If the market opens against your position, you may see an instant loss due to theta decay.
📣 What’s Your Take?
Do you think Nifty will cross 23,000 tomorrow or face resistance?
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comment section!