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| Market Recap & Tomorrow’s Nifty 50 Prediction |
Nifty 50 Today – Market Overview
The Nifty 50 opened with a small gap-up at 23,700 and briefly touched a high of 23,736.50 in the first hour. However, as predicted in yesterday’s analysis, selling pressure dragged the index lower throughout the day. Nifty closed near its day’s low, slipping below 23,500, which was a key psychological support level.
Top Gainers & Losers in Nifty 50
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Gainers: IndusInd Bank (+3.16%), Trent (+2.35%)
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Losers: NTPC (-3.47%), Tech Mahindra (-2.71%)
Sectoral Performance
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Nifty Auto managed to close flat.
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All other sectors ended in the red, with PSU Bank and Realty sectors taking the biggest hit, falling around 1.2%.
With today’s significant decline, the key question arises: Is this a temporary pullback or the start of a fresh downtrend? What can we expect on the weekly expiry day tomorrow?
Let’s analyze the technical charts, indicators, and open interest data to find the answer.
Technical Analysis: Is the Market Trend Reversing?
1. Candlestick Pattern Analysis
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Nifty has formed an Evening Star pattern, which signals a strong trend reversal.
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The index closed below 23,500, breaking the key support of 23,600.
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Next crucial support levels: 23,350 and 23,200
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Resistance: The previous support at 23,600 will now act as a resistance.
2. Indicator Analysis
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RSI (14): Yesterday, RSI started showing bearish signals, and today’s move confirmed the weakness.
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Bollinger Bands: Price is moving towards the lower band, suggesting increased volatility.
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MACD: Bearish crossover confirms a downward trend.
Open Interest (OI) Data Analysis
1. Put-Call OI Analysis
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PE Writers are under pressure: Open interest (OI) in Put Options has declined on most strike prices except 23,300 and 23,400, where some addition is seen.
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Call Writers are aggressive: OI addition on all major Call option strikes confirms bearish sentiment.
2. Key Support & Resistance Based on OI
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Support: 23,300 PE (80 lakh OI)
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Resistance: 23,600 CE (74 lakh OI)
3. OI Buildup Across Indices
FII & DII Activity (Updated)
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FII Net Position: Buy +2240 cr.
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DII Net Position: Sell -696 Cr.
Prediction for Tomorrow: Expiry Day Outlook
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Charts are indicating a downtrend.
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OI data is turning bearish.
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Short buildups across indices confirm negative sentiment.
📉 Tomorrow, the market is likely to open with a gap-down and try to find support at lower levels. Watch for 23,300 and 23,200 as potential bounce areas.
Key Takeaways from Today’s Market
✅ Larger timeframes provide the true trend direction.
✅ Avoid getting trapped in short-term fluctuations on smaller timeframes like 5 minutes.
✅ Expiry days often bring increased volatility—trade cautiously.
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