Nifty Sensex, and Bank Nifty — all major indices — are flashing green lights. The news of a fresh bull rally is everywhere: news channels, social media, and financial YouTubers are buzzing with optimism. But here’s the question — is this optimism real or just another mirage before expiry?
In the last session, Nifty surged nearly 2%, and if we zoom out, it’s up almost 10% in the last two weeks — that’s no small feat. But when you cut through the noise and look at the data, Nifty is sitting right on a key resistance level. We’ve seen it many times — just when the whole market leans bullish, a surprise reversal shows up.
So, let’s put emotions aside and dive into the technical and data analysis, and then predict the next possible move for April 21.
Table of Contents
Market Overview – Bulls Action Started
🔍 Nifty 50 Snapshot
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 23,401.85 | 23,872.35 | 23,298.55 | 23,851.65 |
📊 Market Breadth (Nifty 50)
| ADVANCED | FLAT (<0.25%) | DECLINES |
| 40 | 6 | 4 |
📈 Nifty Movers
| TOP GAINERS | GAIN % | TOP LOOSERS | LOSS % |
| ETERNAL | 4.47 % | WIPRO | – 4.14 % |
| SUNPHARMA | 3.77 % | SUNPHARMA | – 0.31 % |
🏦 Nifty Sectoral Performance
The overall sectoral performance was Bullish.
- Nifty Private Banks top gaining sector with 2.23 % gains.
- Rest All sectors are closed in Green.
🔍 Technical Analysis – Resistance can React !
Nifty has broken through key resistance zones with strong momentum. A big green candle on the daily chart shows how strength and momentum are now aligned. But caution is still advised — Nifty is now hovering around 23,850, a level that previously acted as resistance.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Key Levels:
- Support: 23,450, 23,200
- Resistance:23850, 24200
RSI 14 is also at 62 heading to 70 on Day time frame.
On hourly chart, RSI is on 80 which is a resistance point and Overbought zone.
📈 RSI (14):
Hourly chart: RSI near 80 — overbought zone, expect sideways or mild cooling-off
Daily timeframe: RSI at 62 — heading toward overbought territory
💡 A break and close above 23,850 can trigger short covering toward 24,200. But don’t ignore the potential for a retracement to 23,500 before a fresh leg up.
📊 Open Interest (OI) Data
Today was expiry day, so data is not conclusive. Fresh OI positions will start building on Friday.
- Support: 23,500 (PE OI: 84 Lkh )
- Resistance: 24,000 (CE OI: 59 Lkh )
🧮 OI Build-Up:
| Index | PRICE % | OI % | BUILDUP |
| NIFTY | 1.77% | 1.91% | Long |
| BANK NIFTY | 2.21% | 1.56% | Long |
| FINNIFTY | 2.27% | -0.17% | Short covering |
- Overall, the derivatives data supports bullish momentum. Long positions are visible across all three major indices.
🌐 FII & DII Data (Updated)
FII : + 4,667.94 Cr. Buy in Cash
DII : -2,006.15 Cr. buy in Cash
🧠 Nifty 50 Prediction & Trade Plan (Nifty, Sensex)
📌 If Nifty sustains above 23,850, the market can test 24,200 — but it must come with strong momentum or a gap-up opening.
📌 If Nifty dips to 23,500, that could present a buy-the-dip opportunity.
📉 Avoid buying above 24,000 without volume confirmation — it’s a psychological resistance and may trigger profit booking.
💡 Trade Plan:
- Monitor RSI and OI closely for signs of exhaustion
- Wait for setups near support levels
- Use tight stop-loss above key resistance levels
📘 Key Learning from Today’s Market
When strength meets momentum, the market doesn’t just move — it surges. But blind chasing can trap you near resistance zones. Be selective, be data-driven, and respect your trading plan.
Also, keep in mind — this is expiry week, and volatility can surprise even experienced traders.
📣 What’s Your Take?
Do you think ******?
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comment section!