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| Nifty 50 Prediction & Key Data Points |
Market Overview
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Top Gainers: Tata Consumer (+2.77%)
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Top Losers: IndusInd Bank (-3.84%)
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Advances/Declines: 10 stocks closed in green, 30 stocks in red, while BHEL, Coal India, BPCL, ITC, Axis Bank, Eicher Motors, SBI, and HDFC closed flat.
Sectoral Performance:
Most sectors closed in red, with notable declines in:
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Nifty IT (-1.75%)
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Nifty Realty (-1.50%)
Now, let’s analyze the technicals and data points for April 1, 2025 (since March 31 is a holiday for Eid).
Technical Chart Analysis
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Support Zone: Nifty took support at 23,450 and bounced back, but closing near 23,500 is not an encouraging sign.
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Monthly Chart: Today’s monthly candle closed just below the opening of the previous month, which is not a strong bullish signal. However, it managed to hold above the 20-SMA on the monthly chart, preventing a full trend reversal.
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Weekly Chart: Nifty closed above the weekly 20-SMA, but it needs to sustain for at least one more week to confirm a bullish trend.
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Current Market Range: Nifty is clearly stuck in a 23,450 – 23,650 range and needs a breakout for a directional move.
Indicator Analysis
📊 RSI (14): Slightly bending towards 60, looking for support.
📉 MACD: Still signaling a retracement towards the downside.
Open Interest (OI) Analysis
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Support: 23,500 PE has 67 lakh OI, providing strong support.
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Resistance: 23,600 CE also has 67 lakh OI, acting as immediate resistance.
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This confirms that the market is currently range-bound between 23,500 – 23,600.
OI Buildups
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Nifty 50 & Bank Nifty: Bearish signs.
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Fin Nifty: Long buildup, suggesting potential strength in financial stocks.
FII & DII Activity (Updated)
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FII – sell 4352.82 Cr.
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DII – Buy 7646.49 Cr.
Prediction for April 1, 2025: First Trading Day of the Financial Year
🔍 Key Observations:
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Nifty remains weak unless it breaks above 23,650 for an upmove or below 23,450 for a decline.
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Sideways to bullish bias expected, as it’s the first trading session of FY 2025-26.
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External Risks: Keep an eye on Trump’s tariff announcement, as it may impact the Indian markets.
📌 My View: Market could be sideways to bullish, but caution is needed due to potential volatility.
Key Takeaways for Traders
✅ Stick to Your Analysis: No one can predict market moves with 100% accuracy. Follow your strategy and trade based on probabilities.
✅ Market Liquidity: Markets often fake breakouts to trap traders before making real moves. Look at larger timeframes for clarity.
✅ Learn from Today’s Reversals: If you check today’s 15-minute chart, you’ll see multiple reversal opportunities. These setups can help refine your intraday trading skills.
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