Market Prediction 25 April: Indo-Pak Heat Causes Silent Expiry?

April 24, 2025

Written By marketgains.in

Market Prediction: Everyone expected the usual expiry day drama — high intraday volatility, sharp moves, and some last-minute expiry fireworks. But surprisingly, the market chose a completely different path. Today the Nifty remained eerily silent throughout the session, trading in one of the narrowest ranges seen in recent weeks. It gave no clear advantage to either bulls or bears, frustrating intraday traders and option buyers alike. The volatility crush was evident. Premiums across the board deflated rapidly as the index refused to break out in any direction.

Was this just a textbook case of a technical pause after a strong previous rally. Or was there something more beneath the surface? Many traders and market watchers couldn’t help but wonder. Although the market didn’t react with panic or big red candles, it definitely appeared to enter a ‘wait-and-watch’ zone. This kind of behaviour is typical when large players are assessing the potential long-term impact of major global events. With rising Indo-Pak geopolitical tension making headlines, the market adopted a “wait-and-watch” stance. Let’s dive into the sideways session and decode the data, charts, and sentiment to predict Nifty’s next move.

Market Overview – A Pause Before the Action

🔍 Nifty 50 Snapshot

Open HighLowClose
24,277.9024,347.8524,216.1524,246.70

📊 Market Breadth (Nifty 50)

ADVANCEDFLAT (<0.25%)DECLINES
151718

📈 Nifty Movers

TOP GAINERSGAIN %TOP LOOSERSLOSS %
INDUSINDBNK3.17 %HINDUNILVR-4.12 %
ULTRACEMCO1.89%BHARTIARTL-1.89%

🏦 Nifty Sectoral Performance

The overall sectoral performance was :

  • Nifty Pharma was the only gainer with +1.82%
  • Nifty Realty was down -1.41%
  • Other sectors ended slightly in the red

🔍 Technical Analysis – Is This Pause Significant?

Geopolitical headlines around India’s strong stand against Pakistan might’ve contributed to today’s muted session. While markets don’t always react instantly to political tension, global uncertainty combined with expiry may have led to this indecision.

  • Support: 24,100, 23,870
  • Resistance: 24,360, 24800
  • RSI 14 :
  • Daily Chart: RSI kissed 70 and started turning down.
  • Hourly Chart: RSI falling, could take support near 60.

Market prediction

📊 Open Interest (OI) Data

Expiry day OI data can be unreliable. New contracts begin tomorrow.

  • Max OI Call Side: 24,500 (38 Lakh)
  • Max OI Put Side: 24,000 (43 Lakh)

🧮 OI Build-Up:

IndexPRICE %OI %BUILDUP
NIFTY-0.34%27.74%Short Buildup
BANK NIFTY-0.30%24.12%Short Buildup
FINNIFTY-0.53%28.66%Short Buildup
  • Today was the expiry and from 25 April, New Expiry series will open. So, here OI data has less relevant and has no clarity.

🌐 FII & DII Data (To Be Updated)

FII : Cr. Sell in Cash
DII : Cr. buy in Cash

🧠 Market Prediction & Trade Plan

  • With Indo-Pak developments, global tensions, and recent strong rallies, the market may continue to consolidate or even correct slightly.
  • As per several analysts, the broader trend remains bullish, but short-term caution is advised.
  • 💬 Sushil Kedia (Kedianomics) warns of a deeper correction led by Bank Nifty. He expects slow weakness in Nifty to continue for a few sessions.

📘 Key Learning from Today’s Market

  • A big candle often leads to sideways markets the next day.
  • Geopolitical events may not always lead to instant volatility, but they often increase caution.
  • Expiry day trades can defy expectations – especially when bigger global narratives are at play.

📣 What’s Your Take?

Do you think ******?
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comment section!

Leave a Comment