Market Prediction: Nifty shows signs of reversal as expiry nears. Is a big move coming?
📈 Markets are full of surprises — and today was a perfect example. After a bullish start and intraday rejection, Nifty bounced back to close with strength near crucial levels. With expiry just a day away, all eyes are on whether this reversal sustains and fuels a strong rally. Let’s break it down.
Table of Contents: Market Prediction
Market Overview – A Pause Before the Action
🔍 Nifty 50 Snapshot
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24,744.25 | 24,946.20 | 24,685.35 | 24,813.45 |
📊 Market Breadth (Nifty 50)
| ADVANCED | FLAT (<0.25%) | DECLINES |
| 31 | 10 | 9 |
📈 Nifty Movers
| TOP GAINERS | GAIN % | TOP LOOSERS | LOSS % |
| BEL | 5.28 % | INDUSINDBK | -1.27 % |
| CIPLA | 1.90 % | JSWSTEEL | -1.18 % |
🏦 Nifty Sectoral Performance
The overall sectoral performance was Bullish.
- All sectors ended in green.
- Top Gainer: Nifty Realty (+1.77%)
- Underperformer: Private Banks (+0.14%)
🔍 Technical Analysis
Price Action: Despite heavy intraday swings, Nifty stayed within the previous day’s range and protected yesterday’s low – suggesting a pause in the ongoing downtrend.
Candle Pattern: A spinning bottom candle was formed before expiry day, signaling a possible reversal.
Hourly Chart: A tweezer bottom was observed with the final hourly candle closing above 24,800 – a bullish sign.
Key Levels:
- Support: 24,700
- Resistance: 24,950
- RSI (Daily): Near 60. A breakout above can trigger momentum; below 60 might drag RSI to 40.
- RSI (Hourly): At 48 and rising after touching 40 – supports upside move.
📊 Open Interest (OI) Data
Today was expiry day, so data is not conclusive. Fresh OI positions will start building on Friday.
- Max OI (PE): 74.5 lakh at 24,800
- Max OI (CE): 1.24 crore at 25,000
- Tug of War at 24,800: 76 lakh CE writers at the same strike make it the make-or-break level.
- Short Covering Trigger: Likely if Nifty crosses 24,870–24,880 zone.
🧮 OI Build-Up:
| Index | PRICE % | OI % | BUILDUP |
| NIFTY | 0.17 % | 6.79 % | Long Buildup |
| BANK NIFTY | 0.05 % | 0.56 % | Long Buildup |
| FINNIFTY | 0.14 % | -2.07 % | Short Covering |
- 📅 Sentiment: Positive across indices
🧠 Market Prediction & Trade Plan
Expiry days are known for traps and momentum. Tomorrow may offer both!
- All indicators point to a bullish bias, but high premiums mean high risk.
- CE writings reduced significantly from 24,900 to 25,200 – an early sign of short covering fear.
- If Nifty breaks above today’s high, expect a strong upside move.
- Best strategy: Wait for confirmation with low-risk setups post-9:45 AM.
🎯 Avoid aggressive trades early in the session. Track RSI, VIX, and price rejection zones.
📘 Key Learning from Today’s Market
- Rising VIX + rising price = Option buyer’s friend
- Liquidity sweeps often signal turning points
- Hourly patterns like tweezer bottom can hint early reversals
- Watch for breakout traps near expiry
Disclaimer:
This blog post is intended solely for educational purposes. All information shared here is based on publicly available data, news reports, and personal analysis.
We do not provide any buy or sell recommendations. Investment in stock markets is subject to market risks. Always consult with a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The author and this website assume no responsibility for any financial losses or gains incurred based on the information provided in this article.
📣 What’s Your Take?
Do you think ******?
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