Market Prediction: After opening with a mild 50-point gap-up, Nifty reversed sharply, falling near yesterday’s low within the first hour of trade. What followed was a strong downtrend throughout the session — Nifty closed with a 260-point loss, Bank Nifty shed 530 points, and Sensex tumbled 900 points.
In our previous post, we warned about potential market weakness and advised keeping positions light. That caution played out as today’s market moved decisively downward. Interestingly, despite this strong fall, option premiums didn’t spike significantly, indicating limited volatility and a possible trap for late sellers.
While there’s no major event directly linked to today’s correction, news surfaced about a cyberattack on Zee News servers in Bihar, Jharkhand, and Mumbai — allegedly traced to Bangladesh and Pakistan. This news, combined with Sensex’s weekly expiry effect, may have contributed to negative sentiment.
Let’s analyze the data to decode the next move.
Table of Contents: Market Prediction 21 May 2025
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Market Overview – A Pause Before the Action
🔍 Nifty 50 Snapshot
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24,996.20 | 25,010.35 | 24,669.70 | 24,683.90 |
📊 Market Breadth (Nifty 50)
| ADVANCED | FLAT (<0.25%) | DECLINES |
| 5 | 3 | 42 |
📈 Nifty Movers
| TOP GAINERS | GAIN % | TOP LOOSERS | LOSS % |
🏦 Nifty Sectoral Performance
The overall sectoral performance was Bearish.
- All sectors closed in red.
- Top Weak Sectors:
- Nifty Auto: -2.15%
- Pharma & FMCG: -1.30%
- Market-wide selling pressure shows broad participation in the downtrend.
🔍 Technical Analysis – Is this the start of downtrend?
Today’s large red candle follows two smaller bearish candles — this pattern shows increasing selling strength. However, Nifty is still trading within the breakout candle from 15 May (Low: 24,494 | High: 25,116).
Until the low of the breakout candle is breached, we won’t consider the trend fully reversed on the daily timeframe.
Key Levels:
- Support Zone: 24,500 – 24,550
- Resistance Levels: 24,800 & 25,000
On the hourly chart, Nifty has clearly turned bearish, and price is trending below key support zones.
📈 RSI (14) Indicator
- Daily Timeframe RSI: Closed at 58 (below 60), showing weakening momentum. If today’s low is breached, next RSI support is near 50.
- Hourly Timeframe RSI: Dropped below 40, now around 34 — close to oversold territory.
⏱️ Tomorrow’s first hour will be crucial in determining whether a rebound or further fall is likely.
📊 Open Interest (OI) Data
Today was expiry of SENSEX weekly contracts.
- 24800 CE: 67 Lakh OI
- 24700 PE: 49 Lakh OI
- 24500 PE: 68.65 Lakh OI (Max OI on PE side) ➜ Strong downside bias
🧮 OI Build-Up:
| Index | PRICE % | OI % | BUILDUP |
| NIFTY | -0.76% | +15.18% | Short Build-up |
| BANK NIFTY | -0.64% | +2.46% | Short Build-up |
| FINNIFTY | -0.92% | +2.19% | Short Build-up |
- PCR (Put Call Ratio): 0.49 ➜ Bearish bias
🧠 Nifty 50 Prediction & Trade Plan
- Price structure, OI build-up, and RSI suggest bearish pressure.
- However, Nifty is nearing oversold zones (especially on the hourly chart).
- We’ll consider the trend reversed only if 24,494 (15 May low) is breached.
📌 Trade Strategy:
- Intraday traders should wait for tomorrow’s opening range to assess direction.
- Avoid aggressive long positions unless Nifty reclaims 24,800+.
🧠 Another Expert View
Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi suggested avoiding long positions at current levels. If holding any, traders should hedge with Put Options to manage risk.
📘 Key Learning from Today’s Market
- Breakout candle lows act as final trend support.
- Even in downtrends, premiums don’t always expand — understand implied volatility.
- Always hedge open trades during event-driven uncertainty.
Disclaimer:
This blog post is intended solely for educational purposes. All information shared here is based on publicly available data, news reports, and personal analysis.
We do not provide any buy or sell recommendations. Investment in stock markets is subject to market risks. Always consult with a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The author and this website assume no responsibility for any financial losses or gains incurred based on the information provided in this article.
📣 What’s Your Take?
Do you think ******?
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comment section!